UK mortgage lending growth is forecast to more than double this year – rising from a net increase of 1.5% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, according to the latest EY ITEM Club Outlook for Financial Services. This surge is driven by anticipated Bank of England interest rate cuts, improving household affordability and growing confidence among buyers and remortgagors.
UK Finance also predicts that residential house purchase lending will climb by 10% to £148 billion, while remortgaging volumes are set to soar by 30% to £76 billion in 2025. Despite cautious sentiment in some quarters, as evidenced by Barclays’ Jatin Patel noting “mounting financial pressures” even amid a 50% spike in completions, the overall lending outlook remains robust.
EY ITEM Club Chief Economic Advisor Matt Swannell highlights that “unemployment remains low, wages continue to outstrip inflation and the BoE should continue to cut interest rates — all of this should lead to a recovery in consumer and business confidence over the year”.
Market Turnaround: From Flat Growth to a Lending Boom
After a net 0% change in mortgage lending in 2023, the sector began to recover in the second half of 2024, registering 1.5% net growth as interest rates fell and real incomes improved EY ITEM Club forecasts steady growth beyond 2025, expecting mortgage lending to reach 3.2% net in 2026 as rate cuts feed through the market.
Key Drivers of 2025’s Lending Upsurge
The Bank of England’s decision to cut Base Rate from 4.75% to 4.5% in February 2025 has reduced borrowing costs for those on tracker and variable deals, and encouraged lenders to trim fixed‑rate products. Persistent low unemployment and wage growth outstripping inflation have bolstered household spending power – a vital ingredient for mortgage demand. Anticipated further rate reductions, with markets pricing in cuts to 3.75% by year‑end, are likely to sustain borrowing appetite into the summer and beyond.
UK Finance Projections: Value and Volume
UK Finance data show that residential house purchase lending in 2024 totalled £135 billion – up 11% on 2023 – and is forecast to reach £148 billion in 2025. Similarly, remortgage volumes fell by 10% to £59 billion in 2024 but are expected to recover strongly to £76 billion next year. By contrast, buy‑to‑let mortgage lending is set for a modest contraction in 2025 as regulatory and tax pressures weigh on landlords.
What This Means for Buyers and Advisers
For first‑time buyers, improved mortgage offer rates and stable house price growth present a window of opportunity, though achieving sufficient deposit remains the main hurdle. Remortgagors facing maturing fixed‑rate deals should monitor market swap rates and consider locking in competitive deals early, given busy remortgage pipelines. Advisers will need to model total‑cost comparisons, weighing lower interest rates against product fees and potential early‑repayment charges.
Martina Keane, EY UK & Ireland Financial Services Leader, warns that “optimism must remain measured” amid geopolitical tensions and upcoming tax rises, which pose downside risks to lending growth.
Conclusion
As 2025 unfolds, the convergence of lower rates, stronger consumer confidence and robust lender competition is set to fuel the most significant mortgage lending resurgence in recent.