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Anticipated UK Mortgage Lending Growth: 3.1% Surge & £76 bn Remortgage Boom

Posted on April 23, 2025 - 1:32 pm by cemap

UK mortgage lending growth is forecast to more than double this year – rising from a net increase of 1.5% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, according to the latest EY ITEM Club Outlook for Financial Services. This surge is driven by anticipated Bank of England interest rate cuts, improving household affordability and growing confidence among buyers and remortgagors.

UK Finance also predicts that residential house purchase lending will climb by 10% to £148 billion, while remortgaging volumes are set to soar by 30% to £76 billion in 2025. Despite cautious sentiment in some quarters, as evidenced by Barclays’ Jatin Patel noting “mounting financial pressures” even amid a 50% spike in completions, the overall lending outlook remains robust.

EY ITEM Club Chief Economic Advisor Matt Swannell highlights that “unemployment remains low, wages continue to outstrip inflation and the BoE should continue to cut interest rates — all of this should lead to a recovery in consumer and business confidence over the year”.

Market Turnaround: From Flat Growth to a Lending Boom

After a net 0% change in mortgage lending in 2023, the sector began to recover in the second half of 2024, registering 1.5% net growth as interest rates fell and real incomes improved EY ITEM Club forecasts steady growth beyond 2025, expecting mortgage lending to reach 3.2% net in 2026 as rate cuts feed through the market.

Key Drivers of 2025’s Lending Upsurge

The Bank of England’s decision to cut Base Rate from 4.75% to 4.5% in February 2025 has reduced borrowing costs for those on tracker and variable deals, and encouraged lenders to trim fixed‑rate products. Persistent low unemployment and wage growth outstripping inflation have bolstered household spending power – a vital ingredient for mortgage demand. Anticipated further rate reductions, with markets pricing in cuts to 3.75% by year‑end, are likely to sustain borrowing appetite into the summer and beyond.

UK Finance Projections: Value and Volume

UK Finance data show that residential house purchase lending in 2024 totalled £135 billion – up 11% on 2023 – and is forecast to reach £148 billion in 2025. Similarly, remortgage volumes fell by 10% to £59 billion in 2024 but are expected to recover strongly to £76 billion next year. By contrast, buy‑to‑let mortgage lending is set for a modest contraction in 2025 as regulatory and tax pressures weigh on landlords.

What This Means for Buyers and Advisers

For first‑time buyers, improved mortgage offer rates and stable house price growth present a window of opportunity, though achieving sufficient deposit remains the main hurdle. Remortgagors facing maturing fixed‑rate deals should monitor market swap rates and consider locking in competitive deals early, given busy remortgage pipelines. Advisers will need to model total‑cost comparisons, weighing lower interest rates against product fees and potential early‑repayment charges.

Martina Keane, EY UK & Ireland Financial Services Leader, warns that “optimism must remain measured” amid geopolitical tensions and upcoming tax rises, which pose downside risks to lending growth.

Conclusion

As 2025 unfolds, the convergence of lower rates, stronger consumer confidence and robust lender competition is set to fuel the most significant mortgage lending resurgence in recent.

Mortgage Price Wars Return: Sub 4% Deals from Santander, Lloyds & Barclays

Posted on April 21, 2025 - 1:29 pm by cemap

A renewed mortgage price war has arrived in the UK market, with Santander leading the charge by launching two‑ and five‑year fixed‑rate deals at 3.99% for borrowers with 40% deposits. This bold move followed the Bank of England’s decision to cut its base rate from 4.75% to 4.5%, sparking hopes that competition among lenders would intensify. Lloyds Bank quickly answered back with a five‑year fixed remortgage at 3.98%, while Barclays reduced some two‑ and five‑year deals from over 4.1% to 3.99%. For first‑time buyers and those remortgaging, the return of sub‑4% mortgages offers an opportunity to lock in lower costs—provided they understand deposit requirements, product fees and market timing.

Introduction: Sub 4% Deals Make a Comeback

After months without broadly available fixed rates under 4%, Santander’s 3.99% launch marks the first sub‑4% products from a major high‑street lender in 2025. Eligible customers need a 40% deposit or significant equity to qualify, reflecting lenders’ cautiousness about credit risk. The Bank of England’s base rate cut to 4.5% has encouraged lenders to pass on savings, igniting what many expect to be a full‑scale home‑loan price war.

Mortgage Rate Price War

Santander Sparks the Price War

From Thursday 13 February, applicants could access four new two‑ and five‑year fixed products at 3.99% for both purchase and remortgage, at 60% loan‑to‑value (LTV). David Morris, Head of Homes at Santander, said the move would “make a difference to customers across every stage of the homebuying journey”. By positioning itself as the first major lender with sub‑4% deals, Santander has reset borrower expectations and triggered rapid reactions from competitors.

Competitors Follow Suit

Lloyds Bank responded with a five‑year fixed remortgage at 3.98%, targeting those looking to refinance existing loans. Barclays cut its two‑ and five‑year fixed rates from 4.11% and 4.12% down to 3.99%, reducing costs by up to 0.38 percentage points. David Stirling of Mint Mortgages & Protection noted that “the general feeling is that other major lenders will follow suit this week”.

What This Means for First Time Buyers

Sub‑4% deals are especially attractive to first‑time buyers keen to minimise monthly outgoings. However, the 40% deposit requirement remains a barrier for many, underscoring the importance of saving strategies and government help‑to‑buy options. With April’s stamp duty relief for first‑time buyers reducing (nil‑rate band dropping from £425,000 to £300,000), acting quickly could save around £2,500 on stamp duty costs for an average home.

Implications for Remortgaging Borrowers

More than 700,000 UK households are due to remortgage in 2025, many facing substantial rate rises when their deals expire. While sub‑4% options mitigate some of the pain, average product fees have climbed to about £1,121—borrowers must weigh rate savings against upfront charges. CeMAP Mortgage Advisers should run total‑cost comparisons, including fees and early‑repayment charges, to find genuinely best‑value deals.

Tips for Advisers and Borrowers

Assess LTV and Deposit: Verify whether clients can meet LTV criteria; higher deposits unlock the lowest rates.
Factor in Fees: Average product fees exceed £1,000—always calculate break‑even periods to see how long a deal must run to justify the fee.
Monitor Swap Rates: Market swap rates influence new‑business pricing. As Rachel Springall of Moneyfacts reminds us, “It’s only a matter of time before sub‑4% mortgages return en masse”.
Timing and Stamp Duty: First‑time buyers should act before April’s stamp duty changes; remortgagers may benefit from locking in deals ahead of peak demand.

Conclusion: A Renewed Battle on Rates

Santander’s 3.99% campaign has reignited competition, prompting rapid moves from Lloyds, Barclays and others. For buyers and CeMAP mortgage advisers, the challenge is to balance ultra‑low headline rates against deposit hurdles, fees and market fluctuations. Those who navigate these factors confidently can secure sub‑4% mortgages that deliver genuine savings in 2025.